Certis24eCommerce · Postal · Commercial · Cross-borderConsulting · Compliance · Digital transformation
Independent postal, parcels, logistics & technology consultancy

Front-line expertise in postal, parcels and cross-border eCommerce

Certis24 is an independent consultancy, passionate about postal, parcels, courier and eCommerce.

Business development, strategy consulting and advisory services are led personally by Chris Stevens, with 30+ years at the top of major operators. We help posts, carriers, marketplaces and technology companies grow across borders, supported by market-leading operators and technology partners worldwide. We have the connections to help you link with best-in-class networks.

First mile. Last mile. Every mile in between, across every border.

68clients served53markets8sectors2016delivering global projects since
Chris Stevens, CEO of Certis24
Chris StevensCEO, Certis24

Certis24 can help clients scale cross‑border, operate with control and have full financial visibility of profitability in real time.

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A changing world, new rules at every border, and the whole cross-border chain from first mile to last. Watch how Certis24 helps postal and commercial operators grow across 53 markets.

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A changing world

Cross-border eCommerce and parcels delivery is changing fast. Expert advice has never mattered more.

Global eCommerce was worth an estimated US$7.65 trillion in 2025. By 2035 it could reach almost US$20 trillion.

The next frontiers for growth: the developing economies of Asia, Africa and Central America.

Regulations, costs and partnerships are changing faster than at any time in 30 years, in every region.

Trade tensions, tariffs, conflict on key air and sea routes and uncertain demand all add to the pressure.

Decisions you take now on routes, products, partners and compliance will shape your competitiveness for years. Expert, impartial advice helps you see the whole picture, avoid costly mistakes and move first.

Global eCommerce market, US$ trillion

2025 estimateProjection
051015202025: US$7.65 trillion (estimate)2025$7.65tn2027: US$9.26 trillion (projection)20272029: US$11.20 trillion (projection)20292031: US$13.55 trillion (projection)20312033: US$16.40 trillion (projection)20332035: US$19.83 trillion (projection)2035$19.83tn

Projection assumes growth of 10% a year. Source: Market Research Future, July 2026.

2.6×
growth projected for the global eCommerce market between 2025 and 2035

Forecast eCommerce growth a year, 2025 to 2030

Developing marketsMature markets
0%5%10%15%20%Global average 8.5%South AfricaSouth Africa: 18.0% a year, 2025 to 203018.0%EgyptEgypt: 15.7% a year, 2025 to 203015.7%PhilippinesPhilippines: 14.8% a year, 2025 to 203014.8%Africa (region)Africa (region): 13.9% a year, 2025 to 203013.9%Southeast Asia (region)Southeast Asia (region): 11.1% a year, 2025 to 203011.1%United StatesUnited States: 9.5% a year, 2025 to 20309.5%ChinaChina: 7.8% a year, 2025 to 20307.8%European UnionEuropean Union: 7.4% a year, 2025 to 20307.4%

Compound annual growth rate forecasts. Source: ECDB, August 2026.

New frontiers
Africa and Southeast Asia are forecast to outgrow the global market
with Central America and other developing economies opening new opportunities for operators ready to move early.

Rapid regulatory change

Duty and customs rules are shifting worldwide. The EU now charges duty on low-value imports. The US has ended de minimis for most shipments. Asia-Pacific and Latin America are tightening too.

Customs has moved centre stage: advanced data, risk profiling, tougher border checks. The rules apply to everyone, commercial and postal.

Data and compliance are now the price of entry.

Pressure on postal operators

Letter volumes keep falling. Universal service obligations don’t.

Posts are restructuring to become parcel and quality delivery carriers, led by the Universal Postal Union (UPU), its Consultative Committee and Regional Unions, with the International Post Corporation (IPC) powering the technology that connects them.

New groupings and partnerships aim to win back share in time-certain cross-border eCommerce.

Pressure on commercial operators and freight forwarders

Rerouted trade lanes. Rising rates and surcharges. Customers who want faster delivery and the full landed cost guaranteed at checkout.

Software as a Service (SaaS) facilitators linking marketplaces, shippers, carriers and posts are now central to efficiency and customs compliance.

Freight forwarders with international branch networks are well placed to build their own global eCommerce network. They already serve the brands now selling direct to consumers and control air and sea capacity on the key lanes, so linking their branches into one end-to-end parcel service keeps the customer and captures B2C volumes that would otherwise go to integrators, posts and consolidators.

Pressure on airline yields

Air cargo yields are under pressure again as eCommerce volumes switch lanes after duty changes.

Hong Kong to Europe tonnage fell 30% year on year in August 2026.

Airlines, posts and consolidators must rethink routings, capacity and pricing, including hub-and-spoke options that are faster, more reliable and cheaper.

Heightened security concerns

Tighter aviation security and advance cargo data rules, such as ICS2 in Europe, mean every shipment must be known, screened and declared before it flies.

Operators, airlines and customs now work together more closely than ever, sharing data in real time to keep cargo moving.

No clean data, no market access.

New business models, delivery options and collaborations

The winners are building new models: duties-paid postal products, postal and commercial partnerships, shared final-mile networks and tech-led customs clearance.

Parcel lockers and timed home delivery are established from China to Europe, and growing fast across the Americas.

The right collaboration is often the fastest route to growth.

The cross-border eCommerce value chain

Certis24 advises at every stage
Origin market
In transit
Destination market
  1. 1
    Origin market
    Sellers & marketplaces
    Brands, retailers, marketplaces and eCommerce platforms
  2. 2
    Origin market
    Fulfilment & consolidation
    Warehousing, pick and pack, first-mile collection
  3. 3
    Origin market
    Export & security
    Screening, advance cargo data and export declarations
  4. 4
    In transit
    Linehaul
    Air and sea capacity, international hub-and-spoke networks
  5. 5
    Destination market
    Import customs & duty
    Clearance, duties and taxes, risk checks
  6. 6
    Destination market
    Final mile
    Postal operators, carriers and couriers
  7. 7
    Destination market
    Delivery & returns
    Parcel lockers, timed home delivery, returns
Across every stage: data, compliance and Software as a Service (SaaS) technology facilitators
Postal standards and connectivity: UPU, its Consultative Committee and Regional Unions, and IPC
Key regulatory milestones · updated 30 October 2026
18 Feb 2025
Vietnam ends the VAT exemption on low-value express imports
15 Aug 2025
Mexico raises duty on courier imports from countries without a trade agreement, such as China, to 33.5%
29 Aug 2025
US suspends de minimis for low-value imports
1 Jul 2026
EU €3 duty applies to low-value parcels from outside the EU
24 Jul 2026
US postal informal entry process begins
1 Nov 2026
Upcoming
EU handling fee of about €2 and mandatory product identifiers expected for B2C imports
20 Jan 2027
Upcoming
US Entry Type 13 becomes mandatory for postal shipments facing Section 201, 232 or 301 duties or agency rules
1 Jul 2027
Upcoming
Statutory end of US de minimis

Certis24 brings an independent view across postal and commercial operators, so you understand the options, the risks and the partners that fit before you commit.

Speak to Chris Stevens
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Everything Certis24 offers, in one place

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Whether you need a retained business development partner or a defined project with a clear end point, every conversation starts with Chris.

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Chris’s home city of Oxford
Email
chris@certis24.com
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Chris Stevens, CEO of Certis24
Chris Stevens
CEO, Certis24 Limited
Oxfordshire, United Kingdom
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